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ESA Deaths update. 18-11-15 version.
lordchris
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Ok....


The Govt have finally released the update. How many have died etc. Yes, we clearly have Obfuscation, as I will explain.


The Avoidable Deaths Tracker is here so far.


Deliberate Intent ( the Murder argument. Wilful neglect, whilst hiding the bodies )? It does look bad...



The obfuscation is thus. Fewer have died whilst on ESA than we were forced to predict. IDS hid the deaths, & we had to guess.

He'll now angle that we were Fear-mongering, and are crazy etc. Apparently ~65 deaths a week due to bad work is ok...

Executive Summary is here.

IDS is a monster. The only good news is that there is still time to save them.




Onwards:


So....

4000 or more dead within 6 weeks of being deemed fit for work. Between 2011 and 2014. So about 1400 a year. So about 130 a month. 30 a week.

Already that's a bit much.


10,000 dead within 2 years. And I quote...

50,580 people died within 14 days of their Employment and Support Allowance claim ending. Of those 2,380 had been told they were fit for work. Another 7,200 had been put in the work-related activity group for people who had been assessed as unfit for work, but potentially able to work in the near future.

So... 9,500 dead in a very obvious 'got it wrong' way. Over a 36 month period.

About 270 a month. Ewwww!

Yeah, that's a bit much...



So, that's a good start. 270 dying a month when they should not. ~65 a week. My original estimate was about 60 a week before the 'big crunch' I was forced to do; so I was right here at a basic level. So...


You happy with that? In the 1990's a phrase was used. You have to break a few eggs to make a cake. In this case each one of those eggs is someone like me, and that is one of your relatives.

Now, here's where it get's icky.


Yes, fine, the death count is lower than my 75,000 prediction ( and I won't complain here ) that came out in The Big Crunch; but... We've still got A LOT of innocents dying. And...

The math model I used, resulting in the 75,000 figure, was flying blind. I had no idea what the real figure was, as IDS was wilfully hiding the deaths, so I had to make a logical extension. It was never going to be perfect, but... It forced IDS's hand, and now we know the real figures ( as we shamed him into telling the truth ).

Hey-ho. 65 a WEEK DEAD is NOT acceptable. And that's just the ones on the radar.



You need to consider the number who have also died whilst never having claimed ESA. Some people live at home carried by family, and then die. Just like with JSA. Not every Coroner will list 'death due to excessive stress' as that either. So we are still in a, well, it's NOT a success story.

Self harm is up 40%. Hardly a success story.

Suicide is up 70% in Adult Males.

Malnutrition & Shoplifting? I'll get to that...

Homelessness is up. As the Bedroom Tax beats the Disabled out of their adapted homes.


The return of Victorian Diseases is real. Yes, it really is happening. Malnutrition was the obvious one. NHS England now has a malnutrition strategy.


So we have Deaths AND Injuries. Not just deaths dear reader ( how many people require anti-depressants to survive ESA now? Nearly a million you'll find )...


I was wrong on the Deaths, fair does. I won't complain here, as my estimate was too high ( thankfully ); but...

The fact the real deaths were hidden ( forcing me to estimate ) is still CLEARLY dodgy-as.

The fact so many are rolling in injured clearly damns IDS for the truly evil man he is. A clear extremist who should not have been empowered.

My math was only a little out, whilst flying blind ( due to deliberate DWP obfuscation. Hey, I'm not psychic ). IDS's work? Horrendously inaccurate, on all counts. And, even now, he just refuses to change his ways.




One last point. The Age Data factor is not relevant. Seriously.

When you hit 65 you shift to Pension. So... You shouldn't be dying of old age unless you are, well, older than 65. Not in a 1st world country anyway. You'd expect a decent innings to about 70-75 for a male in Modern UK ( 80-85 for the ladies ).

I mention this as...


Here's the summary:

50,000 dead within 14 days of their ESA ending. Erm, how does that work? They clearly did not heal. I am rather worried that they did not make it past 65 if it is old age. Is this UK Obesity and Alcoholism? Medication side-effects? It might be... If their life is so harsh they die before the age of 65 then that is a HUGE problem.

How much of that harshness is poverty?


The Obesity Epidemic is real after all. And that will shorten your life. But so is the harshness of modern life for the ill & infirm. And that WILL shorten our life ( US data. I'd like an update on Uk data I have to say )...

Do we have an update ( ethnic breakdown ) for the UK; considering how most big families hit by the Benefits Cap are, erm, not white...? I think this is a fair question.



65 dead a week in a black-and-white unacceptable way, since 2010-ish. 5 years is 250 weeks, which is ~16250 people dead. That is fewer than the 75,000 I calculated ( whilst being deliberately left in the dark ). I won't complain, as that means we can still save those in pain.


The return of Victorian Diseases. Ooh look, people in pain.


Homelessness and Suicides are clearly up. Yup, more pain.


No doubt IDS thinks he is brill. Much as my assumptions were out on those having died all this means is that we are still stuffing our people up ( the injury count, and how bad it now is ).

The good news? We still have time to save them. They aren't dead yet.

The inhumanity ( starving Disabled people with the Bedroom Tax etc ) is clear as crystal. It's a HUGE level of emotional and psychological violence.


I did say that this guy was a Psychopath.

He tried to hide the deaths. Some people DID die. Oh my.



The only good news in any of this is that we still have time to save them. None of this is a success story.

I don't doubt that it is costing our NHS a fortune too. That's some VERY sloppy work there. It is always cheaper not to kick the ill in in the first place.


Indeed.


No doubt IDS will be insisting that it's working. The rise in very expensive injuries would suggest otherwise. External factors...


IDS never was that bright, but there you go. Me? I don't like having my eggs in 1 basket.

They're our most vulnerable, and they are in AGONY. Think. How is this quality work?



I would hope it very obvious that this govt is just too harsh. Just like they were in the 80's and 90's.

There is this theory of the Mobeus. Where time becomes a loop...

Are you happy to see kids self-harming? Disabled people being made homeless? Old people picking up malnutrition? Kids getting Rickets again?


I think it's safe to say IDS is a dead man walking.



Me? Well, I did get it wrong... Or did I? This is an old Croydon trick. You get it right loads, they ignore that, and then flag up the 1 mistake you did make. They then brand you incompetent for only being 99% accurate on degree level stuff.

Clearly it's an outright lie. 99% accurate cannot be incompetent in a complex field like this.

A degree at First ( the A grade of degrees ) is about 80%. I perform at higher than 80% accuracy. That's hardly incompetent. Well not unless you're one of the local thugs who has trouble balancing their bank account anyway.


I was correct on the sources of stress too. 95% accurate? That's the one. Higher than a first. In a hugely complex field. With no help. Just me and a knackered old laptop. No fleet of lawyers etc.

If he'd been honest with the deaths things would have been different, but he tried to hide them *shrugs*. As those injuries rose. All those dodgy injuries; that should not have happened in a Civilised 1st World Country; as he hid the deaths...



The only good news is that there is still time to save them. Just let that sink in. This is still very-much a train-wreck of a Govt.

--


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65 a WEEK DEAD is not acceptable ( fit for work & WRAG stuff ). And that's just the ones on the radar.


It IS lower than the 75,000 I was forced to predict when IDS hid the deaths, but...


Self harm up 40%. Hardly a success story.

Suicides up 70% in Adult Males.

Homelessness up. As the Bedroom Tax beats the Disabled.


The return of Victorian Diseases is real. Yes, it really is happening. Malnutrition was the obvious one. NHS England now has a malnutrition strategy. Rickets is coming back. F'ing Rickets!

Youth Self Harm up as well. 20% now self harm.



The ONLY good news is that the Death Count is lower than predicted. Which means they can still be saved.

Injuries are rising fast though. And The UN IS watching here.

Edited at 2015-08-30 10:57 am (UTC)

50,000 dead within 14 days of their claim ending.


We know that some would have died due to bad decisions, but without a detailed survey of Coroner's Reports I don't have enough data on Cause of Death ( the allegation of Stress-related Deaths ).

We still don't know how many died in Support Group due to Excessive Stress ( like PIP delays, or Bedroom Tax starvation ).


Also... You can work, as a man, whilst smoking & drinking; and then grab your chest and fall over at the age of 63. Obesity, Beer, Fags... Death.

They'd be working then die pre age-of-retirement, so would not be in the ESA figures.

Those in the ESA figures died within 14 days of their claim ending, at an unknown age. 50,000 of them.


Muddy waters.


I need more proof. I need that Coroner Survey.



If the stress-related Deaths come in low then that is actually good news. The stress-related Injuries are VERY relevant still. Victorian Diseases etc.

The only good news is that they are still alive.

Edited at 2015-08-31 09:24 am (UTC)

I am still of the opinion IDS did this deliberately. I still believe that it was a Roman Decimation Strategy.


- He hid the bodies, & tried to smear those concerned about the dead they saw ( we're fear-mongerers apparently ).

- He ignored experts like Harrington. He ignored coroners. He actually gagged the Charities pre-election. He listened to a couple of Bankers instead.


It looks like crap. He is either medically deranged, or... Did it deliberately, to use fear as a weapon to control us ( the Decimation Strategy ).

The Injuries & Deaths are real. As was the deception.

Edited at 2015-12-21 01:40 pm (UTC)

The idea is to make it harsher, so that people are forced back to work sooner; but...

~20k dead, with nearly 1m injured, is...

They aren't going back to work sooner. The total number of people on the sick has only dropped by 40,000 in about 5 years. So...

We can only assume that people are not healing, not matter how hard they are shoved about.

Not healing. As they are being shoved about too much...

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